Peter Rabbit Vs. Fifty Shades: Who Will Rule the Box Office?

Last weekend, Sony’sJumanji: Welcome to the Jungleproved its unconventional box office mettle by beating out the only newcomer in wide release,Winchester, winning for the fourth time in its seven-week run, with just $10.9 million. Barring any sort of box office miracle, its rule at the top is likely over, with Universal rolling outFifty Shades Freed, alongside Sony Pictures’Peter Rabbitand Warner Bros.The 15:17 to Parisstarting this Friday. We’re predicting that the animated family filmPeter Rabbitwill come out on top at the box office this weekend asFifty Shades Freedcontinues the massively downward trajectory for this franchise.

As of now, onlyPeter Rabbit, the family adventure based on Beatrix Potter’s beloved books, has enough ratings on Rotten Tomatoes to qualify for the TomatoMeter, receivingmixed-positive reviewsthus far, with a 59% RT score. The score is just one percent under the “Fresh” cut-off of 60%, and with just a few days left until this hits theaters, the critical reception could swing either way. BothPeter RabbitandFifty Shades Freedare estimated to open in 3,700 theaters apiece this weekend, but since family movies that cater to a wider audience often get the best of adult R-rated fare likeFifty Shades Freed, we’re predicting thatPeter Rabbitwins with a modest $23.6 million, followed byFifty Shades Freedwith $21.8 million andThe 15:17 to Parisin third with $14.6 million. We’re predicting the top 5 will be rounded out byJumanji: Welcome to the Jungledropping to fourth place with $7.2 million, withThe Maze Runner: The Death Curein fifth with $6.1 million.

If these projections hold true forFifty Shades Freed, it will mark another massive drop from its predecessor. TheFifty Shades trilogykicked off in 2015 withFifty Shades of Grey, which introduced movie audiences to Christian Grey (Jamie Dornan) and Anastasia Steele (Dakota Johnson). The movie opened big in February 2015 with $85.1 million, although it dropped off rather quickly, dropping a massive 73.9% in its second weekend, and ending its domestic run with $166.1 million and an additional $404.8 million internationally for $571 million worldwide, from just a $40 million budget. The 2017 sequelFifty Shades Darkerfell off considerably, with a $46.6 million debut, en route to $114.5 million domestic, plus $266.5 million internationally for a global haul of $381.1 million, from a slightly-increased $55 million budget.

While bothFifty Shades FreedandPeter Rabbithave built-in audiences, the real X-factor this weekend could very well be Clint Eastwood’sThe 15:17 to Paris. The filmmaker made the bold move of casting thereal-life American heroes, Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos and Spencer Stone, who helped thwart the 2015 terrorist on a train from Amsterdam to Paris, as themselves in the movie. While casting the actual subjects of a biopic as themselves isn’t entirely unprecedented (i.e. Howard Stern playing himself inPrivate Parts), it’s incredibly rare, especially when the subjects have no acting experience whatsoever. It’s possible this bold gamble could help entice audiences to theaters that may lead to a bigger box office debut.

The top 10 will likely be rounded out byWinchester($5.2 million),The Greatest Showman($4.7 million),Hostiles($3.5 million),The Post($3.1 million) and12 Strong($2.8 million). Also opening in limited release this weekend is Pantelion’sLa Boda de Valentina, arriving in an estimated 325 theaters, Sony’sPadmanarriving in 150 theaters, IFC’sThe Female Brainslated to debut in one theater, and Reliance Entertainment’sAiyaaryand Parade Deck’sFourPlayalso arriving without any theater count estimates. There is no word on whether or not these limited release titles will be expanding nationwide in the weeks to come.

Looking ahead to next weekend, Marvel rolls outBlack Panther, which was named one of the mosthighly-anticipated movies of 2018. That superhero adventure will go up against Lionsgate and Aardman Animation’s stop-motion comedyEarly Manand PureFlix’sSamson. Also opening in limited release next weekend is FilmRise’sThe Boy Downstairs, WellGo USA’sDetective K: Secret of the Living DeadandThe Monkey King 3, Sony Pictures Classics’Loveless, Bleecker Street’sNostalgia, Film Movement’sOh Lucy!and Roadside Attractions’The Party. Take a look at our projections for the box office top 10 below, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.